BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.76–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.76–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.752.8
20271.80.752.8
20281.80.762.8
20291.80.762.8
20301.80.762.8

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO91977
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO52019
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO42025
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO42017
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO42025
Sierra BlancTEXAS42025
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS42025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO32025
PinonNEW-MEXICO32024
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO32025
Delaware CrkTEXAS32015
ToyahvaleTEXAS32025
Salt FlatTEXAS32015
Ft. DavisTEXAS32025
DemingNEW-MEXICO21975
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO22021
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22025
EngleNEW-MEXICO21987
Black GapTEXAS22025
ValentineTEXAS21987
Coyanda DrawTEXAS22021
Dove Mtn.TEXAS22006
MarfaTEXAS22025
Van HornTEXAS22025
Chisos BasinTEXAS22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.