BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Great Basin has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+46%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
200Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.70–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.70–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.1 (95% range 0.70–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.661.4
20271.00.671.4
20281.00.681.4
20291.10.691.4
20301.10.701.4

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moses CouleeWASHINGTON172025
SnowdenWASHINGTON161971
Sand PassNEVADA92025
Ewan 2WASHINGTON92024
EllensburgWASHINGTON82025
PicaboIDAHO72021
Meadow VallyNEVADA72025
Tule ValleyUTAH72011
OdessaWASHINGTON72025
Walla WallaWASHINGTON71993
Daniels ResIDAHO62025
Ruby ValleyNEVADA61999
RavendaleCALIFORNIA52024
OreanaNEVADA52003
Gardnerville 2NEVADA52025
Lone RockOREGON52024
MontagueOREGON52025
NewcastleUTAH52022
TwispWASHINGTON52024
AsotinWASHINGTON52025
EwanWASHINGTON52019
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON52025
JoelIDAHO42024
Toiyabe NfNEVADA42024
NixonNEVADA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.