BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Great Basin has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+30%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
199Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.0 (95% range 0.69–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.0 (95% range 0.69–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.651.4
20261.00.661.4
20271.00.671.4
20281.00.681.4
20291.00.691.4

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SnowdenWASHINGTON161971
NighthawkWASHINGTON112024
Ewan 2WASHINGTON92024
PicaboIDAHO72021
Tule ValleyUTAH72011
ReardanWASHINGTON72024
Walla WallaWASHINGTON71993
Ruby ValleyNEVADA61999
RavendaleCALIFORNIA52024
OreanaNEVADA52003
Lone RockOREGON52024
DeschutesOREGON52024
EightmileOREGON52024
PendletonOREGON52024
NewcastleUTAH52022
TwispWASHINGTON52024
EwanWASHINGTON52019
EllensburgWASHINGTON52024
Moses CouleeWASHINGTON52023
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON52024
JoelIDAHO42024
Toiyabe NfNEVADA42024
NixonNEVADA42024
Darroughs Hot SpgsNEVADA42018
PrincetonOREGON41985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.