BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Northern Rockies has surged: up 220% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+220%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Northern Rockies: up 220% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Say's Phoebe In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.002.5
20260.370.002.5
20270.350.002.4
20280.330.002.4
20290.310.002.4

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Patrick DrawWYOMING201980
LaurelMONTANA122022
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON72024
BridgeportOREGON62022
TwickenhamOREGON62024
Patrick Draw 2WYOMING61983
DonnybrookOREGON51997
NowoodWYOMING52024
GeboWYOMING52024
Patrick Draw 6WYOMING52013
MaybellCOLORADO42024
Muddy CreekMONTANA42015
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA42018
RandolphUTAH42024
Crawford MtsUTAH42010
TensleepWYOMING42024
LayCOLORADO32024
CoolinIDAHO32024
SpartaOREGON32001
MonumentOREGON32024
SilviesOREGON31994
WoodruffUTAH32017
ChewelahWASHINGTON32021
Deer ParkWASHINGTON32015
CodyWYOMING32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.