BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Northern Rockies has surged: up 227% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+227%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
131Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Northern Rockies: up 227% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Say's Phoebe In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.380.002.5
20270.360.002.4
20280.350.002.4
20290.330.002.4
20300.310.002.4

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Patrick DrawWYOMING201980
TwickenhamOREGON82025
L Pend O NwrWASHINGTON72024
NowoodWYOMING72025
TensleepWYOMING62025
Patrick Draw 2WYOMING61983
LayCOLORADO52025
DonnybrookOREGON51997
Flamin GorgeWYOMING52025
Patrick Draw 6WYOMING52013
MaybellCOLORADO42024
Muddy CreekMONTANA42015
MadrasOREGON42025
Crawford MtsUTAH42010
GeboWYOMING42025
LaurelMONTANA32025
BridgeportOREGON32025
MonumentOREGON32025
SilviesOREGON31994
ChewelahWASHINGTON32021
Deer ParkWASHINGTON32015
BasinWYOMING32025
ClarkWYOMING32025
LovellWYOMING32025
LysiteWYOMING32017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.