BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 266% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+266%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 266% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Say's Phoebe In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.82–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.82–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.82–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.792.2
20271.50.802.2
20281.50.812.3
20291.50.812.3
20301.50.822.3

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArvadaWYOMING112025
Reed PointMONTANA92025
BrandenbergMONTANA92025
ForsythMONTANA82023
Miles CityMONTANA82025
NatronaWYOMING81992
SchoonoverWYOMING82025
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA72015
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA62019
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA62024
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA62012
WyarnoWYOMING62022
UptonWYOMING62025
ShawmutMONTANA52025
Wheat BasinMONTANA52025
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA52025
RecluseWYOMING52025
Teapot DomeWYOMING51989
LocateMONTANA42017
Jordan SouthMONTANA42025
Hehn DrawMONTANA42025
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA41981
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA42025
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA42024
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.