BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 233% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+233%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 233% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Say's Phoebe In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.78–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.5 (95% range 0.78–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.752.2
20261.50.762.2
20271.50.772.2
20281.50.772.2
20291.50.782.2

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA102023
ForsythMONTANA82023
NatronaWYOMING81992
Caballa CrkWYOMING82021
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA72023
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA72015
ArvadaWYOMING72024
BrandenbergMONTANA62019
Wheat BasinMONTANA62024
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA62019
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA62024
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA62012
WyarnoWYOMING62022
DwyerWYOMING62014
Reed PointMONTANA52024
Coleman CouleeMONTANA52023
RecluseWYOMING52024
Teapot DomeWYOMING51989
Thunder BasinWYOMING52024
LocateMONTANA42017
Hehn DrawMONTANA42024
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA42024
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA41981
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA42024
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.