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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Aerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in BCR 4 has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-95%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has collapsed in BCR 4: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Say's Phoebe In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1272.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1272.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1272.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.1
20260.000.001.1
20270.000.001.1
20280.000.001.1
20290.000.001.1

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChistochinaALASKA62008
Tangle LakesALASKA41987
Skilak LakeALASKA31983
Ft. RichrdsnALASKA32010
EagleALASKA22017
Chatanika RALASKA22019
Birch LakeALASKA22021
HomerALASKA21978
Mt. FairplayALASKA22010
NorthwayALASKA12017
MaclarenALASKA12021
MonahanALASKA12003
CantwellALASKA12014
ToklatALASKA12008
Chena Hot SpALASKA11990
SourdoughALASKA12008
ChickenALASKA12024
Hatcher PassALASKA12023
Burma RoadALASKA11999
ColdfootALASKA12021
KuskulanaALASKA11994
Mccarthy Rd2ALASKA11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.