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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Kansas has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+28%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Kansas is projected to rise about 197% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.03–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±261.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+197%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±261.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Kansas is projected to rise about 197% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.03–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±261.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.020.43
20260.230.020.43
20270.230.030.43
20280.230.030.43
20290.230.030.43

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ashland320211997
Jewell 2220092009
Wallace220221972
Ruleton220221993
St John120041981
Coats119891972
Coldwater120111980
Lakin120172015
Albert119961980
Gray120181967
Hays120051978
Leoville120181977
Covert120241968
Jewell120052005
Phillipsburg119981970
Logan120101968
Gove120221979
Missler120191979
Plymell120222008
Ulysses120072007
Grigston120242024
Leoti120212010
Damar120032001
Rexford120232004
Winona120132001

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.