BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Idaho

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Idaho has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+90%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Idaho: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Idaho is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.11–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Idaho is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.11–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.100.45
20270.280.100.46
20280.280.110.46
20290.290.110.47
20300.290.110.47

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Picabo720212002
Daniels Res620251988
Joel420241992
Mud Lake320252013
Gifford220172005
Lost River220232002
Kyle Canyon220092009
Blacks Creek220172016
Alturas219691969
Triangle220251985
Coolin220252005
Silver City220191989
Mora220252018
Blackft Res119961996
Naples120242001
Twin Buttes120251999
Circular Bu119891989
Tractor Flat120252004
Baker120182003
Cascade119731972
Challis120232004
Leadore120182018
Dubois120121972
Craters120061991
Magic Mtn119981998

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.