BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Nebraska has surged: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+136%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Nebraska: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Nebraska is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.15–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±203.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Nebraska is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.15–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±203.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.560.131.00
20270.570.131.0
20280.570.141.0
20290.580.141.0
20300.590.151.0

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kimball820251975
Stratton720251985
Agate 2520252003
Murray Lake520251987
Agate420011969
Brownlee419961996
Paxton320161969
Crawford320251992
Brownson320252025
Oglala Nat. Grass.220171999
Dalton220251971
Brady220171998
Benkelman220221997
Arthur220252023
Hay Springs220252018
Culbertson220252025
Berwyn 2220152014
Pine Ridge120002000
Sumner120252002
Holbrook120071973
Bartley120241995
Surprise119751971
Petersburg119911990
Oconto119761973
Winside119811975

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.