BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Nebraska has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+32%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Say's Phoebe Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Nebraska is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.13–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±286.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±286.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Nebraska is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.44 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.13–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±286.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.100.98
20260.550.110.99
20270.560.120.99
20280.560.121.0
20290.570.131.0

Say's Phoebe Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stratton620241985
Murray Lake520241987
Agate 2420242003
Agate420011969
Brownlee419961996
Paxton320161969
Oglala Nat. Grass.220171999
Dalton220241971
Kimball220211975
Brady220171998
Benkelman220221997
Berwyn 2220152014
Pine Ridge120002000
Sumner120242002
Holbrook120071973
Bartley120241995
Surprise119751971
Petersburg119911990
Oconto119761973
Winside119811975
Eagle Creek119771977
Swan Lake120141979
Table120171980
Gordon120102010
Ringgold120142014

Say's Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.