BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+32%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
201Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.4–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.4–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.43.2
20262.31.43.2
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20282.31.43.2
20292.31.43.2

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HatchUTAH132024
AnethUTAH122024
PecosNEW-MEXICO102017
BasinCOLORADO92024
TorreonNEW-MEXICO92024
BonanzaUTAH92015
The GapARIZONA81976
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO82022
CorreoNEW-MEXICO81982
CounselorNEW-MEXICO72024
JensenUTAH72024
WestwaterUTAH72024
Black MesaARIZONA61994
HuntARIZONA62018
Douglas PassCOLORADO62024
CokedaleCOLORADO62024
LudlowCOLORADO62016
Black Sulphur CrCOLORADO62024
NageesiNEW-MEXICO62024
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO62024
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO62024
Salt Lake 2NEW-MEXICO62024
Arches NpUTAH62011
ToroweapARIZONA52021
PageARIZONA52019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.