BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.4–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.4–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.33.2
20262.31.33.2
20272.31.33.2
20282.31.43.3
20292.31.43.3

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TronaCALIFORNIA91997
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA92002
Cutter 2ARIZONA72018
WildroseCALIFORNIA72022
LenwoodCALIFORNIA72012
New RiverARIZONA62016
Gila BendARIZONA62009
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA62016
Jean LakeNEVADA52010
Squaw PeakARIZONA41969
RivieraARIZONA42024
TecopaCALIFORNIA42019
NelsonNEVADA42024
VicksburgARIZONA31989
DatelandARIZONA32013
Alamo Res.ARIZONA32023
ArabyARIZONA32022
Red RockARIZONA32014
Ajo 2ARIZONA32022
Cactus ForestARIZONA32024
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA32024
DarwinCALIFORNIA32005
Death ValleyCALIFORNIA32023
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA32024
Cholla Gard.CALIFORNIA32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.