BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.3–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.3–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.33.2
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20282.31.33.2
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Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TronaCALIFORNIA91997
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA92002
Cutter 2ARIZONA72018
WildroseCALIFORNIA72022
LenwoodCALIFORNIA72012
New RiverARIZONA62016
Gila BendARIZONA62009
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA62025
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA62025
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA52025
Jean LakeNEVADA52010
Squaw PeakARIZONA41969
Cactus ForestARIZONA42025
Eureka ValCALIFORNIA42025
TecopaCALIFORNIA42019
Val Of FireNEVADA42025
VicksburgARIZONA31989
Alamo Res.ARIZONA32023
ArabyARIZONA32022
Red RockARIZONA32014
Ajo 2ARIZONA32022
DarwinCALIFORNIA32005
Death ValleyCALIFORNIA32023
Cholla Gard.CALIFORNIA32019
Silver PeakNEVADA32006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.