BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

11×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Say's Phoebe has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Say's Phoebe In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.25–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.25–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.440.230.66
20260.450.230.67
20270.460.240.67
20280.460.250.68
20290.470.250.69

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RedstoneMONTANA42024
WhitlashMONTANA42024
Wolf PointMONTANA42021
GlasgowMONTANA32024
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA32024
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA32019
Hay LakeMONTANA22022
SunburstMONTANA22007
HarlemMONTANA22018
WestbyMONTANA22024
LambertMONTANA22023
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA22023
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
VirgelleMONTANA12023
ClevelandMONTANA12023
OswegoMONTANA12023
Great FallsMONTANA12024
ShelbyMONTANA12019
GildfordMONTANA12016
ChinookMONTANA12024
Ester LakeMONTANA12023
SacoMONTANA12024
GlentanaMONTANA12021
Sun RiverMONTANA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.