BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Say's Phoebe In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

12×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.27–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.27–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.460.240.68
20270.470.250.68
20280.470.260.69
20290.480.270.70
20300.490.270.70

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA52025
WhitlashMONTANA42024
Wolf PointMONTANA42021
VirgelleMONTANA32025
GlasgowMONTANA32025
RedstoneMONTANA32025
GlentanaMONTANA32025
LambertMONTANA32025
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA32025
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA32019
SunburstMONTANA22007
HarlemMONTANA22018
ChinookMONTANA22025
WestbyMONTANA22025
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA22025
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA22023
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA22025
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA22025
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA22025
Hay LakeMONTANA12025
ClevelandMONTANA12023
OswegoMONTANA12025
Great FallsMONTANA12024
ShelbyMONTANA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.