BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Say's Phoebe In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Say's Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Say's Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Say's Phoebe In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Say's Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.002.7
20261.20.002.7
20271.20.002.6
20281.20.002.6
20291.20.002.6

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Say's Phoebe in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Skull ValleyARIZONA62024
RedingtonARIZONA62022
PinetopARIZONA42022
AlpineARIZONA42023
AmadoARIZONA42023
Clay SpringARIZONA42024
SprucedaleARIZONA42022
PomereneARIZONA32024
CutterARIZONA32014
PortalARIZONA32023
FlagstaffARIZONA22021
PrescottARIZONA22022
BlueARIZONA21987
Mormon LakeARIZONA11974
San SimonARIZONA12023
Peña BlancaARIZONA12022
PatagoniaARIZONA12024
SunizonaARIZONA11997
WilliamsARIZONA12019
MaineARIZONA12023
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA12019
Forest LakesARIZONA12024
Bartlett ResARIZONA12023
SahuaritaARIZONA12021
McnealARIZONA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.