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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oregon has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+46%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ash-throated Flycatcher Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.27–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.27–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.231.9
20271.10.241.9
20281.10.251.9
20291.10.261.9
20301.10.272.0

Ash-throated Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Deschutes3920251968
Clover Creek1820251974
Madras1720251997
Twickenham1220252010
Sams Valley820251993
Merrill720221993
Selma720251994
Derby619931968
Umpqua520251969
Fandango Can520251985
Crooked Riv.520251999
Emigrant Lk420001972
Bly 2320242012
Green Mtn.320251999
Catlow Rim320252004
Prospect320171996
Blitzen 2220251998
Imnaha219961979
Adrian220182018
Fish Lake220231978
Mikkalo220232012
Green220251995
Crane220232021
Ruch220161993
Donnybrook219971997

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.