BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oregon has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+54%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ash-throated Flycatcher Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has risen sharply in Oregon: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.23–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.23–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.201.9
20261.10.211.9
20271.10.221.9
20281.10.231.9
20291.10.231.9

Ash-throated Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Deschutes4420241968
Clover Creek2320241974
Madras1820241997
Twickenham1620242010
Green Mtn.1120241999
Emigrant Lake 2920242002
Sams Valley920241993
Merrill720221993
Derby619931968
Secret Val620221976
Catlow Rim620242004
Wagontire420241983
Emigrant Lk420001972
Summit Pr320241980
Bly 2320242012
Green320241995
Prospect320171996
Blitzen 2220231998
Imnaha219961979
Umpqua220241969
Fandango Can220241985
Days Creek220241973
Adrian220182018
Blizzard Gap220231984
Fish Lake220231978

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.