BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Arizona has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+86%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ash-throated Flycatcher Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Arizona: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201327
2027201328
2028201328
2029201328
2030211328

Ash-throated Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quartzsite8420251974
Carr Mtn6320251985
Peña Blanca5720251975
Pomerene5620251968
Bates Well5420231995
Dragoon5320091993
Tonto Vill.4620251994
Cabeza Priet4520251993
Organ Pipe4420231990
Red Rock 24120242015
Mcneal4020251992
Skull Valley 23820252025
Vicksburg3719891968
Redington3520251993
Gila Bend3420251995
New River3220161974
Clay Spring3220251988
Bartlett Res3120251992
Alamo Res.3020251992
Skull Valley2920241996
Pisinimo2819931992
Willow Beach2719971989
Ajo2620081968
Patagonia2620251968
Cutter2520141992

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahokansasnevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.