BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Arizona has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+77%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ash-throated Flycatcher Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Arizona: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201227
2026201328
2027201328
2028201328
2029201328

Ash-throated Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pomerene7820241968
Peña Blanca5820241975
Bates Well5420231995
Dragoon5320091993
Cabeza Priet5220241993
Organ Pipe4420231990
Red Rock 24120242015
Alamo Res.4020241992
Vicksburg3719891968
Redington3720231993
Quartzsite3420241974
Clay Spring3320241988
New River3220161974
Skull Valley2920241996
Gila Bend2920241995
Pisinimo2819931992
Amado2820231993
Mcneal2720241992
Willow Beach2719971989
Ajo2620081968
Forest Lakes2520241992
Cutter2520141992
Patagonia2420241968
Bartlett Res2420241992
Cibola Lake2220241993

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahokansasnevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.