BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oklahoma has surged: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+264%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ash-throated Flycatcher Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Oklahoma: up 264% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.07–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.07–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.060.33
20260.200.060.34
20270.200.060.34
20280.200.070.34
20290.210.070.34

Ash-throated Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed820191985
Randlett720042004
Felt620241983
Hardesty320002000
Duncan319951995
Clear Lake220162014
Hollis220241993
Phroso120132013
Woodward120132013
Hooker120172017
Keyes120232010
Cookietown119981995
Grimes120221969
Erick119801969
Cooperton120242012
Arapaho120072007

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasnevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.