BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Nevada has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+118%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ash-throated Flycatcher Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Nevada: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 1.4–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Nevada is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.7 (95% range 1.4–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.61.25.9
20263.61.35.9
20273.61.35.9
20283.71.46.0
20293.71.46.0

Ash-throated Flycatcher Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadow Vally3120241996
Desert Nwr2320241990
Walker Can1220241982
Ranchogrande920241992
Hiko920231968
Caliente820211988
Nelson820241995
Ash Meadows720241993
Jean Lake620131975
Beatty520241991
Carson River420052002
Cortez420232022
Alamo419891968
Mizpah320241988
Illipah320211992
Majors Place220051999
Ruby Valley 2220162016
Chimney Res.220242023
Austin120172017
Toiyabe Nf120032003
Eureka119971994
Dobbin Creek120081995
Willis120241994
Minerva120052005
Val Of Fire120241976

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasnew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.