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Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Nevada has surged: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+125%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ash-throated Flycatcher Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Nevada: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Nevada is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.5–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Nevada is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 1.5–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.71.46.0
20273.71.46.1
20283.81.56.1
20293.81.56.1
20303.91.56.2

Ash-throated Flycatcher Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Caliente3520251988
Meadow Vally2520251996
Desert Nwr1220251990
Walker Can1220241982
Nelson1020251995
Ranchogrande920241992
Willis620251994
Jean Lake620131975
Carson River420052002
Cortez420232022
Hiko420251968
Alamo419891968
Val Of Fire420251976
Mizpah320241988
Ash Meadows320251993
Illipah320211992
Majors Place220051999
Ruby Valley 2220162016
Bald Mtn.220252007
Austin120172017
Toiyabe Nf120032003
Eureka119971994
Dobbin Creek120081995
Minerva120052005
Beatty120251991

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasnew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.