BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in New Mexico has surged: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+201%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ash-throated Flycatcher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in New Mexico: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.9–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.9–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.9–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025129.315
2026129.415
2027129.615
2028139.815
2029139.915

Ash-throated Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Claunch 23920242001
Mountainair3320241992
Hatchet Peak3320241992
Pecos2720171973
Gage2720241968
Red Rock2720241992
Mcgaffey2520231994
La Plata 22520162014
Fence Lake2320241975
Mesilla2220001992
Roswell2120231972
Jornada2120241974
Variadero2120221994
Pinon2120241992
Logan2120241977
Nageesi2020241968
Claunch2020001977
Queen2020211993
Sabinoso2020211980
Columbus1920241992
Salt Lake 21920242002
La Cienega1820221968
Reserve1820231993
Sunshine Wll1820241992
San Antonio1719771974

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.