BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in New Mexico has surged: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+205%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ash-throated Flycatcher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in New Mexico: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 10.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10.0–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 10.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026129.415
2027129.515
2028129.715
2029139.815
20301310.015

Ash-throated Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Claunch 24320252001
Mountainair3320241992
Logan3020251977
Pecos2720171973
Hatchet Peak2620251992
La Plata 22520162014
Jornada2420251974
Sunshine Wll2420251992
Mesilla2220001992
Variadero2120221994
Pinon2120241992
Claunch2020001977
Red Rock2020251992
Queen2020211993
Sabinoso2020211980
Fence Lake1920251975
Reserve1920251993
La Cienega1820221968
Emory Pass1820251993
San Antonio1719771974
Stinking Lk.1719991992
Nageesi1620251968
Rodeo1620251976
La Plata1620131990
Magdalena1520251997

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.