BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Texas has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+118%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ash-throated Flycatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Texas: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Texas is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 4.2–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Texas is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 4.2–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.24.06.4
20265.34.16.5
20275.34.16.5
20285.44.26.6
20295.44.26.6

Ash-throated Flycatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Longfellow4220241968
Bear Mtn3820241988
Devils R Cyn3520241994
Cornudas3320181969
Shafter3119851969
Eldorado3120231975
Girvin3020241975
Ozona2920221975
Encinal2820101969
Mertzon2820191967
Quitman Canyon 22820242010
Slaughter2520211968
Pumpville2520242006
Loyola Beach2420091994
Ft. Stockton2220242004
Comstock2120231967
Mentone2120152002
Pecos2120172017
Black Gap2020231988
Coyanda Draw2020241994
Salt Flat1920151995
Laredo1820192002
Quitman Cyn.1820091999
Catarina1720101970
Albany1720241969

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.