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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Texas has surged: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+128%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ash-throated Flycatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Texas: up 128% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.5 (95% range 4.3–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.5 (95% range 4.3–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.34.16.4
20275.34.16.5
20285.44.26.6
20295.44.26.6
20305.54.36.7

Ash-throated Flycatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sierra Blanc4520251999
Devils R Cyn4220251994
Pumpville4120252006
Quitman Canyon 23920252010
Bear Mtn3420251988
Cornudas3320181969
Longfellow3220251968
Shafter3119851969
Eldorado3120231975
San Pedro3020251996
Ozona2920221975
Encinal2820101969
Mertzon2820191967
Slaughter2520211968
Guerra2520251989
Van Horn2520252017
Loyola Beach2420091994
Girvin2220251975
Black Gap2120251988
Mentone2120152002
Pecos2120172017
Presidio1920252000
Salt Flat1920151995
Hondo1820251969
Laredo1820192002

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.