BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Utah has surged: up 880% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+880%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ash-throated Flycatcher Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Utah: up 880% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.6 (95% range 3.5–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.6 (95% range 3.5–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.33.25.5
20274.43.25.5
20284.53.35.6
20294.53.45.7
20304.63.55.8

Ash-throated Flycatcher Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hatch3120251994
Blanding2920251987
Moab2520251986
Shivwitz2420251993
Hite2020251986
Canyonlands1420061991
Boulder1320251974
Fayette1320251992
Canyon Rims1320251998
Lake Powell1220091993
Escalante1220251998
Notom1220251989
Promontory1120251988
Desert View1120251993
Glen Canyon1120251991
Alton 21020252021
Bullfrog Bay1020172002
Cleveland1020251994
Moquith Mtn1020241988
Wellington 3920252012
Goose Creek Mtn.920252002
Canyonlands920251987
Main Canyon920251988
Aneth820251991
Wellington720021997

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasnevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregontexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.