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Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Ash-throated Flycatcher in Utah has surged: up 780% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+780%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Ash-throated Flycatcher Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Ash-throated Flycatcher has surged in Utah: up 780% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.5 (95% range 3.3–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Ash-throated Flycatcher in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.5 (95% range 3.3–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.23.05.3
20264.33.15.4
20274.33.25.5
20284.43.35.5
20294.53.35.6

Ash-throated Flycatcher Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Ash-throated Flycatcher in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shivwitz3820241993
Hatch2320241994
Escalante1820241998
Blanding1820241987
Aneth1520241991
Moab1420241986
Canyonlands1420061991
Cleveland1420241994
Lake Powell1220091993
Monticello1220242000
Bullfrog Bay1020172002
Moquith Mtn1020241988
Boulder920211974
Alton 2920242021
Notom920241989
Glen Canyon920241991
Goose Creek Mtn.820232002
Canyon Rims820241998
Beryl820241988
Wellington720021997
Wah Wah720041989
Canyonlands720241987
Cane Spr Des720121993
La Sal619931993
Westwater620241997

Ash-throated Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.