BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Oregon has surged: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+126%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has surged in Oregon: up 126% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Oregon is projected to rise about 133% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+133%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Oregon is projected to rise about 133% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.002.3
20270.340.002.2
20280.310.002.2
20290.280.002.2
20300.250.002.2

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Modoc Point4720141969
Sparta4220011972
Donnybrook2219971997
Bly 21020182007
Madras620222022
Umatilla620251998
Deschutes420101974
Bridgeport420221988
Crane420242005
Bly319941973
Blizzard Gap319881988
Fish Lake320241976
Harney Lake320211993
Catlow Rim320211993
Crowley220072007
Days Creek220142009
Malheur Nwr219901988
Alvord Lake219921988
Garfield219781978
Eightmile219921992
Pendleton220251979
Unity220182018
Green Mtn.220032003
Merrill220061993
Warner Vally220031997

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.