BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Ohio has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has fallen sharply in Ohio: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Ohio is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1237%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1237%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Ohio is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 0.97 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1237%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.002.6
20261.30.002.6
20271.30.002.6
20281.30.002.6
20291.30.002.6

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bismark3519951967
Hiram3020211992
Vickery2820242002
Garrettsvile1819911967
Kingsway1220031969
No Kenton1220151975
Wilmington919901970
Tecumseh819711966
Graytown619761969
Strongsville619831967
Birmingham620241988
Ashley520121993
Kings Creek520072007
Meadowbrook520071985
Harveysburg519931993
New Marshfld519931992
Xenia420141994
Lockport319961968
N Baltimore320171976
Shawnee S.F.319931993
Lenox320141966
Cumberland320061991
Tar Hollow220042004
Herner Crns219881968
Troy219881988

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.