BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Michigan is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.77 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Michigan is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.77 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.002.8
20271.00.002.8
20280.980.002.8
20290.950.002.7
20300.910.002.7

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bergland4119931993
Wilson4020071966
Hamburg 22720222006
Hamburg2020011981
Juniata1620241978
Tyre1519961967
Monterey1020251978
Cathro1020071967
Adair1019951976
Bootjack820091970
Ontonagon619711971
Marenisco620031988
Big Blue Lk619931987
Remus620121974
Prattville620131967
Walloon Lake 2620242005
Mayfield620252002
Ishpeming519911985
Creighton520191985
New Troy520231971
Skeels520081966
Red Oak519901979
Drayton Plns519771974
Deckerville520161978
Pleasant Valley 2520252004

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.