BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Texas has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Texas: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±633%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±633%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.63). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±633%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.63
20250.000.000.63
20260.000.000.63
20270.000.000.63
20280.000.000.63

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
El Indio4020011974
La Pryor3719741974
Lone Oak3719941993
Grayback1419701969
Cottonwood1020001988
Campbellton619701970
Bayside620032003
Raymondville620091990
Utopia420042004
Laredo420232015
Thornton 2320092003
Mount Zion320102010
Henrietta319691968
Lag Atascosa220182018
Progreso220112005
Comstock219721972
Bruceville220102010
Clarendon219701970
Rachal119891983
Zapata119821967
Kingsville120051984
Petronila120022002
San Ygnacio119821967
Hobson119851985
Winchell119721971

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.