BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Kentucky has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+15%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bank Swallow in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2317.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2317.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2317.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.400.001.5
20210.390.001.5
20220.390.001.5
20230.380.001.5
20240.380.001.5

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bardwell1220021978
Goshen219771977
Shiloh120181996
Joy120071983
Sunnybrook119941994
East Union120131986
Pine Ridge119721972
Kings Mtn119671967
Lebanon Junction120142014
Eastview120191980

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.