BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Alaska

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Alaska has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-82%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Alaska: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.0012
20260.000.0012
20270.000.0012
20280.000.0012
20290.000.0012

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kanektok Riv22320051995
Tupuknuk16019951995
Bear Creek9619911986
Selawik (Short)9319871986
Wasilla6519831983
Goodnews Bay5820051999
King Salmon5720241993
Kobuk River (Short)5619921991
Dillingham (Short)5619841984
Koyukuk Riv.4220011993
Kenai Lake (Short)3619921992
Gweek River3220021994
Circle3120241987
Mcgrath2720191997
Tangle Lakes2319871987
Mud River2020241993
Kodiak1919841983
Hather Creek1720221993
Paxson Lake1619921992
Copper River1420111993
Togiak River1420051999
Chiniak1220241985
Cantwell1120031982
Matanuska1119831983
Lake Louise1120081993

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.