BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Utah has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-96%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Utah: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Utah is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Utah is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.003.1
20260.050.003.1
20270.020.003.1
20280.000.003.0
20290.000.003.0

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crawford Mts30020172015
Neponset Res4820181996
Saleratus Cr1920001995
Grouse Creek1419831983
Oak City1319741972
Promontory1220111974
Bear River1119921992
Hyrum1019761976
Goshen720131992
Moon Lake 2520052005
Dragerton519731973
Castleton519751974
Wellington 2520102006
Hanna520242001
Bicknell420022002
Escalante420072007
Kamas320241997
Wellington320022000
Fairfield320132013
Altonah219791979
Hardware Ranch219961995
Johnson Can220171988
Jensen220221993
Cleveland220001992
Lost Cr. Res119951995

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.