BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Missouri has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-13%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bank Swallow in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Missouri is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±375.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±375.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Missouri is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±375.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.001.7
20260.530.001.7
20270.530.001.7
20280.540.001.7
20290.540.001.7

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sticklervill4020151976
Miller2720192018
Eugene2320242022
Laclede1120101996
Lincoln1020232018
Frankford720131991
Cameron419891989
Kahoka419861986
New Point420141994
Warren319781978
Madison319721972
Syracuse220111996
Rensselaer219981984
Rockingham219771977
Bolckow219881984
Tarkio219711970
Mcfall220172017
Cascade120102010
Watson120162002
Elmo120232017
Hayden120142004
Centertown120162002
Ohio120192019
Stet119861975
Hamilton119721972

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.