BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Nevada has surged: up 457% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+457%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has surged in Nevada: up 457% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Nevada is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2062.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2062.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Nevada is projected to fall about 56% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2062.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.006.5
20271.10.006.5
20281.10.006.5
20291.00.006.5
20301.00.006.5

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gardnerville17920052001
Gardnerville 24820252018
Fallon1320141997
Dobbin Creek719961994
Carson River420022001
Ruby Valley419971997
Eureka420082008
Mill City320132013
Midas220212011
Dinner Sta219681968
Chimney Res.220132013

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.