BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-72%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2020TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2020 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±139.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2020, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682020
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20160.020.000.47
20170.020.000.46
20180.010.000.46
20190.010.000.45
20200.000.000.45

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W Augusta2820001972
Cape Charles2120092006
Taylorstown619851983
Tryme219791979
Jerome219931993
Newsoms219731973
Hebron219951991
Stanley119681968
Edinburg120041971
Brodnax119821980
Walkers120152015
Fincastle120031968
Shipman119791979
Church Road119971997
White Stone119961981

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.