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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Minnesota is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.007.0
20272.00.006.9
20281.90.006.8
20291.80.006.8
20301.80.006.7

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beltrami8320251967
Whitewater 24920152014
Whitewater4020001994
Money Creek3220191969
Bena2019671967
Big Stone1320121995
Frontenac1220242009
Glyndon1120251978
Hartland1020171967
Pine River1020251983
Edwards1020241981
Lude1020161978
Bagley1019951995
Arlington819731967
Nebish819931988
Knapp720191967
St Stephen720161967
Bemidji719801979
Franklin720122012
Mahtowa719931993
Chandler620251971
Lakeville620251968
Tenney619961978
Chatfield519951967
Evergreen520251968

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.