BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.8 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.8 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.007.0
20262.00.007.0
20271.90.006.9
20281.80.006.8
20291.80.006.8

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitewater 24920152014
Whitewater4020001994
Courtland3920241978
Money Creek3220191969
Appleton2720231978
Bena2019671967
Millville1820191967
Glyndon1320241978
Big Stone1320121995
Frontenac1220242009
Hartland1020171967
Edwards1020241981
Lude1020161978
Bagley1019951995
Arlington819731967
Cromwell820221972
Nebish819931988
Knapp720191967
St Stephen720161967
Bemidji719801979
Franklin720122012
Mahtowa719931993
Evergreen620241968
Tenney619961978
Chatfield519951967

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.