BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in North Dakota has held roughly steady: down 0% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-0%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bank Swallow in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 4.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 4.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.94.112
20268.04.212
20278.14.312
20288.14.312
20298.24.412

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Bank Swallow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Walcott7020231967
Bentley6620241988
Abercrombie3920121981
Rolla2020071972
Dunn Center2020221969
Bowesmont1619961968
Glen Ullin1620221982
Horsehead Lk1520221988
Webster1520242018
Carson1420211988
Cooperstown1020241969
Ft Yates1020011968
Denbigh920241970
Gorham919961968
Niles820151994
Sheyenne Lk720241982
Braddock720221988
Montpelier720242001
Abercrombie 2720172013
Forman520241973
Wimbledon420172014
Turtle Mtns420221980
Emerado320211974
Dickinson320241968
Parshall320081982

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.