BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bank Swallow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in North Dakota has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bank Swallow in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.3 (95% range 4.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.3 (95% range 4.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.04.212
20278.14.312
20288.14.412
20298.24.412
20308.34.512

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Bank Swallow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glen Ullin14320251982
Walcott7020231967
Bentley6620241988
Abercrombie3920121981
Cooperstown2620251969
Rolla2020071972
Dunn Center2020221969
Bowesmont1619961968
Horsehead Lk1520221988
Webster1520242018
Carson1420211988
Montpelier1220252001
Ft Yates1020011968
Denbigh920241970
Gorham919961968
Niles820151994
Forman720251973
Dickinson720251968
Braddock720231988
Abercrombie 2720172013
Douglas Crk620251982
Sheyenne Lk520251982
Wimbledon420172014
Turtle Mtns420221980
Emerado320211974

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.