BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Kansas has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-82%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in Kansas: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Kansas is projected to fall about 91% by 2028 — from 0.18 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-91%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Kansas is projected to fall about 91% by 2028 — from 0.18 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.100.002.0
20250.080.002.0
20260.060.002.0
20270.040.001.9
20280.020.001.9

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ellinor10020182014
Wreford5620011995
Wallace1320031993
Humboldt1019861986
St John820151985
Melrose619731968
Longton619771977
Coats520231974
Dalton420081970
Rock Creek420091992
Phillipsburg420161996
Coldwater320191971
Logan319881967
Missler319851985
Wellington219831970
Lakin220011967
Albert219951977
Kanopolis219931967
Gray219781967
Leoville219951968
Hanover219811971
Seneca220061991
Hollenberg219831969
Reece220192007
Olathe119741968

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.