BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 156% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±480.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+156%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±480.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 156% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±480.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.004.0
20261.90.004.1
20272.00.004.1
20282.00.004.1
20292.00.004.1

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ponca2720242024
Irvington2020211978
Winside1920001971
Murray Lake1420132004
Almeria1220211970
Dalton1019871987
Midway1020001970
Oconto919751968
Sumner620241975
Agate 2520222002
Bartley519941969
Hendley520212019
Liberty319861976
Gretna320161967
Surprise319751975
Paxton319921967
Piester Lake320241986
Kennedy320091987
Winside 2320132008
Seward219791979
Kenesaw219681968
Richland220091969
Sparta219981979
Eagle Creek219981998
Swan Lake220232023

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.