BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 16× by 2027 — from 0.22 in 2022 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5177.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

16×Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5177.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 16× by 2027 — from 0.22 in 2022 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5177.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20233.20.0012
20243.30.0012
20253.30.0012
20263.40.0012
20273.40.0012

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Bank Swallow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaver97220071983
Ardmore1819681968
Randlett1220051991
Hardesty1020061970
Sickles819921992
Douglas820222009
Clear Lake620001999
Wakita520131973
Verden319671967
Eagle City219911990
Tatums220102003
Chester219691969
Tegarden219681967
Felt120072003
Phillips119731973
Keyes120082008

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.