BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in New Jersey has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has fallen sharply in New Jersey: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in New Jersey is projected to fall about 100% by 2021 — from 0.29 in 2016 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1249.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2021TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2021 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1249.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in New Jersey is projected to fall about 100% by 2021 — from 0.29 in 2016 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1249.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662021
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20170.000.004.6
20180.000.004.6
20190.000.004.6
20200.000.004.6
20210.000.004.6

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Bank Swallow in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bloomsbury4019921969
Bennett Mill1619761967
Sandbrook619931983
Friendship620162016
Toms River519661966
Deepwater419761976
Hope419741974
Mt Misery319791979
Greenwich320071972
Clarksville319761976
Kemah Lake319851966
Keyport219931993
Masonville119681968
Winslow119991999
Midvale120061967
High Point119951986
Pottersville119831981
Roosevelt120152015

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.