BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bank Swallow Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in New York has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in New York: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in New York is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±190.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in New York is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±190.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.004.6
20270.000.004.6
20280.000.004.6
20290.000.004.6
20300.000.004.6

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Bank Swallow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Macdougall11920251969
Cayuga6619961969
Alder Creek4920041971
Salem3020141968
Rifton2019671967
Watertown1620121969
Rhinebeck1520171967
Warrensburg1519781967
E Youngstown1420241969
North Easton1419961968
West Seneca1320041966
Oneonta1219981968
Cicero Ctr1219881966
Hopkinton1219901979
Durham1019761966
Centerville920061969
Byron820191975
Wanakena819941980
Harris Hill820222005
Mendon719751970
Nashville720001967
Ogdensburg720251979
Huntington620112011
Catskills619701970
Corbettsvile619931966

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.