BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bank Swallow Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Bank Swallow in New York has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-88%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bank Swallow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bank Swallow has collapsed in New York: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bank Swallow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in New York is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±220.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±220.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bank Swallow in New York is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.96 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±220.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.004.5
20260.000.004.5
20270.000.004.5
20280.000.004.5
20290.000.004.5

Bank Swallow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Bank Swallow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cayuga6619961969
Alder Creek4920041971
Macdougall3920241969
Salem3020141968
Rifton2019671967
Watertown1620121969
Rhinebeck1520171967
Warrensburg1519781967
North Easton1419961968
West Seneca1320041966
Oneonta1219981968
Cicero Ctr1219881966
Hopkinton1219901979
Durham1019761966
Centerville920061969
Byron820191975
Wanakena819941980
Harris Hill820222005
Mendon719751970
Nashville720001967
Huntington620112011
Catskills619701970
Corbettsvile619931966
Vestal Ctr620091996
Pulaski620081973

Bank Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawareidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.