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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Oregon has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-27%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Oregon is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 9.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 2.4–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Oregon is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 9.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 2.4–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026132.924
2027132.823
2028132.623
2029132.523
2030132.423

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Modoc Point53820181969
Donnybrook20819971997
Willow Spg15219711969
Sparta11520251972
Bly11120011974
Silver Creek10820241984
Twickenham10720252010
Princeton10319851972
Sandy River7520061993
Modoc Point 27120252024
Zumwalt6920051995
Harney Lake6820241993
Fish Lake6620251972
Crane5820241993
Blizzard Gap5720251984
Ordnance5019791974
Pendleton4820251978
Warner Vally4720241993
Adair4420251971
Canby4320251993
Deschutes3620251968
Catlow Rim3020251993
Crooked Riv.3020211996
Glasgow2320221987
Nicolai Mtn.2320251993

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.