BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Oregon has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-25%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Oregon is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 2.9–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Oregon is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 2.9–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025143.324
2026143.224
2027133.124
2028133.024
2029132.924

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Modoc Point53820181969
Sparta37920011972
Donnybrook20819971997
Umatilla18420231988
Willow Spg15219711969
Twickenham14020242010
Bly11120011974
Silver Creek10820241984
Princeton10319851972
Fish Lake10320241972
Canby9120241993
Modoc Point 27820242024
Sandy River7520061993
Zumwalt6920051995
Harney Lake6820241993
Nicolai Mtn.5920241993
Crane5820241993
Ordnance5019791974
Warner Vally4720241993
Adair3820241971
Umpqua3620241968
Catlow Rim3520241993
Salem3520241993
Elkton3020241972
Crooked Riv.3020211996

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.