BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Kansas has surged: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+152%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Kansas: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 30 (95% range 8.0–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.0–5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 30 (95% range 8.0–51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025297.551
2026297.651
2027297.851
2028297.951
2029308.051

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dalton21820241969
Ashland20720211969
Hanover15020231995
Hodges11120142009
Hollenberg9320232008
Hopewell8620182000
Wreford7720241993
Albert7720241967
Winona6220182000
Reece6120242011
Galesburg5020242015
Kanopolis4520241970
Lakin4120211969
Minneapolis3320191968
Ash Valley3220192004
Severance3020242000
Seneca2920221967
Susank2720222007
Berwet2520242008
Missler2420191986
Gove2320221973
Lincolnville2220242003
Rock Creek 22220242022
Olsburg2120242000
Coldwater1920211974

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.