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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Kansas has surged: up 296% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+296%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Kansas: up 296% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Kansas is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 9.2–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.2–5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Kansas is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 9.2–57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026328.456
2027328.656
2028328.856
2029339.056
2030339.257

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kanopolis140520251970
Ashland20720211969
Coats14620251967
Hodges11120142009
Albert11020251967
Hopewell8620182000
Wreford7720241993
Solomon7320251992
Winona6220182000
Olsburg6020252000
Dalton5220251969
Galesburg5020242015
Lakin4120211969
Ellinor3420251969
Minneapolis3320191968
Ash Valley3220192004
Seneca2920221967
Susank2720222007
Missler2420191986
Gove2320221973
Lincolnville2220242003
Coldwater1920211974
Longton1820211979
Ruleton1720221981
Goessel1520252013

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.