BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in North Dakota has surged: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+154%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in North Dakota: up 154% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 150% by 2030 — from 31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 77 (95% range 52–102). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+150%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
52–10295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 150% by 2030 — from 31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 77 (95% range 52–102). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026744998
2027745099
20287551100
20297652101
20307752102

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Braddock51020231988
Bowesmont42020141968
Nash39620171980
Abercrombie 225520182013
Regan19120251968
Ft Yates16520041968
Cooperstown15320251970
Abercrombie14720121983
Sydney10419831967
Dunn Center9720251975
Rolla8020241973
Parshall8020131982
Bowesmont 27520162015
Buchanan6420251967
Bowman6320251970
Carpio5720231967
Tobacco5520181969
Dickinson5420252000
Edgeley4220251980
Bentley3420241988
Niles3020241989
Zap2920241972
Douglas Crk2520251982
Emerado2220251974
Montpelier2020251990

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.