BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in North Dakota has surged: up 203% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+203%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in North Dakota: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 79 (95% range 56–101). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
56–10195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in North Dakota is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 79 (95% range 56–101). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025755298
2026765399
20277754100
20287855100
20297956101

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Braddock55520221988
Bowesmont42020141968
Nash39620171980
Cooperstown28020241970
Abercrombie 225520182013
Buchanan25220241967
Dunn Center17420241975
Ft Yates16520041968
Abercrombie14720121983
Edgeley11920241980
Gorham10720181977
Sydney10419831967
Douglas Crk9120241982
Regan8420221968
Rolla8020241973
Parshall8020131982
Bowesmont 27520162015
Carpio5720231967
Solen5720242005
Dickinson5520242000
Tobacco5520181969
Golva5220231979
Montpelier4420241990
Emerado4120241974
Carson4120241988

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.