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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Michigan has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has collapsed in Michigan: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Michigan is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Michigan is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.890.003.1
20270.830.003.0
20280.780.003.0
20290.730.002.9
20300.680.002.9

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Herman1520151983
Raco1520011972
Monterey1320151979
Shingleton1019901967
Bear Lake920251971
S Lyons919921992
Richmond920191999
Mayfield920072000
Gibbs City819971979
Holt820251994
Waldenburg820131969
Hungerford820251992
Ned Lake720241986
Pleasant Val719911987
Lapeer620242000
Wilson520101972
Lake City520101977
Bell Oak519951969
Adrian520161991
Juniata520241971
Crystal Fls420161979
Isabella419981966
Muskallonge420001967
Coopersville420041990
Prattville420181979

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.