BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Indiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Indiana has surged: up 66× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

66×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Indiana: up 66× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Indiana is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 4.2–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Indiana is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.2 (95% range 4.2–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.53.512
20277.73.712
20287.93.912
20298.14.112
20308.24.212

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newberry10220252000
Fowler8020252014
Indian Spgs7220251994
Washington7120252024
Georgia6120252004
Wabash5520252007
Clear Spring5420251993
Witts Station5020252000
Spencer4120241982
Corydon2520102006
Rensselaer2520252009
Jamestown2220252000
Celestine2220252001
Cumback2020252014
Brookville1720242024
New Castle1720242017
Sexton1620242010
Thorntown1320252005
New Brunswick1120252024
Frankfort1020252016
Galveston820221982
Kewanna720211987
Brazil520252001
Friendswood520242022
New Phila520242024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.