BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Indiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Indiana has surged: up 53× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

53×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Indiana: up 53× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Indiana is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 4.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Indiana is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 4.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.83.410
20266.93.610
20277.13.710
20287.23.911
20297.44.011

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washington6120242024
Georgia5520242004
Clear Spring5420241993
Spencer4120241982
Wabash3620242007
Indian Spgs3120241994
Newberry3120242000
Brazil2920242001
Corydon2520102006
New Brunswick2320242024
Brookville1720242024
New Castle1720242017
Sexton1620242010
Rensselaer1520242009
Fowler1220242014
Hebron1120221997
Thorntown920222005
Galveston820221982
Kewanna720211987
Witts Station720242000
Jamestown620242000
Friendswood520242022
New Phila520242024
Frankfort520222016
Cyprss520112006

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.