BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in New York has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has collapsed in New York: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.88 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1185.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1185.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.88 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1185.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.920.001.8
20270.910.001.8
20280.900.001.8
20290.890.001.8
20300.880.001.8

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
West Bangor3719981990
Downsville1620191982
Waddington1219981981
S Vandalia1220171974
Willsboro1020021968
North Easton820171971
Purdy820222000
E Newark719991975
Nashville720181967
Byron720071975
Middletown619801967
Cobleskill620161966
Dryden620071981
Dannemora619781968
Naples620232023
Platte Cove520171970
Laurens520171969
Swain520071985
Cherry Hill519981968
Oneida520101968
W Shokan420031968
Branchport420231996
East Java420191969
Ogdensburg420161979
Dexter Lake419751969

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.