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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Mississippi has surged: up 42× on the route-weighted index since 1988.

42×Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Mississippi: up 42× on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Mississippi is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 15–67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Mississippi is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 41 (95% range 15–67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026361062
2027371263
2028391364
2029401466
2030411567

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Water Valley30720182018
Cockrum28820241986
Tupelo16720222012
Embry13320252007
Isola12520222007
Duck Hill10720252001
Trace North9420182008
Tchula 39420252009
Tallahatchie8820251998
Grenada Lake8820191997
Trace Hinds8120222019
Benton6620252016
Corinth5320252014
Panther Swamp Nwr4820182016
Trace Chickasaw3820252016
Lake Mary3319881987
Trace South2720192007
Eagle Lake2220252012
Weir2120252018
Delta N.F.1820211995
Lucien1719881987
Trace Central1620212007
Lake1520252018
Trace Lee1320182013
Trace Madison1220162016

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.