BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Mississippi has surged: up 41× on the route-weighted index since 1988.

41×Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Mississippi: up 41× on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Mississippi is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 40 (95% range 14–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
14–6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Mississippi is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 91 in 2024 to a central estimate of 40 (95% range 14–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025358.761
20263610.062
2027371164
2028391265
2029401466

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle Lake87320242012
Water Valley30720182018
Cockrum28820241986
Tupelo16720222012
Isola12520222007
Duck Hill9520242001
Trace North9420182008
Grenada Lake8820191997
Trace Hinds8120222019
Weir7620242018
Benton7320242016
Embry7020242007
Tippo6420242016
Aberdeen5520242007
Panther Swamp Nwr4820182016
Tchula 34020242009
Lake Mary3319881987
Trace Chickasaw2920242016
Trace South2720192007
Corinth2620242014
Lake1920242018
Delta N.F.1820211995
Lucien1719881987
Trace Central1620212007
Trace Lee1320182013

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.