BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in New Mexico has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+148%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in New Mexico: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 4.5–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.5–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in New Mexico is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 4.5–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025134.422
2026134.422
2027134.522
2028134.522
2029134.522

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valencia9619971968
Farley9020241979
Carrizozo7320241989
Variadero6620221994
Wagon Mound5619781970
Maxwell5620241996
Mesilla5620001992
Logan5320241978
Farmington4419871975
Rosebud4220241994
Dulce4120242000
Pecos3920171973
Angel Fire3420021992
Aztec3119891988
Tucumcari3019751975
Deming3019751971
Shiprock2420241995
Grenville2220241968
Red Rock2120241992
Sabinoso1920211980
Correo1819821975
Torreon1620241975
Queen1420211993
Raton1219941994
Laborcita1220191993

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.