BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Montana has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+49%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Montana. See the full index history below.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Montana is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Montana is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026180.0038
2027180.0038
2028180.0037
2029180.0037
2030180.0037

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Powderville23220251970
St Mary21620081968
Beaverhead18020251973
Winnett15520252017
Custer14520222022
Shawmut13620251979
Albion10720251982
Clyde Park8420252018
Webster8220251978
Harlem7720211970
Forsyth7320231980
Inside Road6020211999
Custer 26020252024
Glasgow5920251968
Whitlash5620242009
Red Rock5520251973
St Xavier 25520232017
St Xavier5120111979
Savage5020191970
Greenoagh 35020162015
Glen4920251982
Saco4920252015
Raynesford4520242016
Heart Butte4420252015
Church Hill3720252017

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.