BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Nebraska has surged: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+112%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Nebraska: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 38 (95% range 15–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±168.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 38 (95% range 15–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±168.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025361359
2026371459
2027371460
2028381560
2029381561

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paxton55020161967
Sumner23220241967
Stratton20020241975
Gretna16420181968
Dalton9220241968
Agate 26420242002
Sparta5820211987
Kearney4720241972
Table4720241978
Wheeler Co4220241978
Tilden3620242019
Brady3520241980
Richland3120241990
Kennedy2820241985
Agate2720011967
Murray Lake2620241987
Boelus2620222018
Belvidere2420241990
Seward2020241996
Irvington2020241980
Midway2020231995
Berwyn2020101994
Surprise1920242011
Gordon1920241975
Crookston1520242019

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.