BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Nebraska has surged: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+112%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Nebraska: up 112% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 82% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 15–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 82% by 2030 — from 21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 37 (95% range 15–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026351358
2027361359
2028361459
2029371460
2030371560

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paxton55020161967
Stratton16620251975
Gretna16420181968
Sumner13120251967
Richland12520251990
Murray Lake11020251987
Kearney10720251972
Irvington7020251980
Brady6720251980
Tilden5320252019
Table5020251978
Belvidere4420251990
Dalton4220251968
Johnstown3320251967
Murdock2920252018
Agate2720011967
Boelus2620222018
Kimball2420251975
Chambers2120252023
Berwyn2020101994
Nenzel1920252021
Bartley1720251980
Seward1420251996
Sutherland1420252023
Ringgold1220232003

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.