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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Kentucky has surged: up 85× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

85×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Kentucky: up 85× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.0–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.0–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026114.917
2027115.217
2028115.517
2029125.718
2030126.018

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shiloh16220251979
Lovelacevile13320252005
Riverqueen6220252012
Apex2020252007
Campton1620211979
East Union1520251999
Canton1220252012
Merrimac1220242010
Hodgenville 21220232008
Gatewood1020182015
Joy1020221990
Porter1020252002
Mckee820232023
Kehoe719921992
Cumberlnd Gp520051994
Keysburg520241971
Hustonville520252001
Sulphur Lick420242011
Plum420252018
Levee 2420072007
Daniel Boone319881985
Bardwell 2320232021
Million 2320242013
Pleasurevill220222019
Eastview220242012

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.