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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Texas has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
231Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has risen sharply in Texas: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 108% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 45 (95% range 18–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+108%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
18–7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 108% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 45 (95% range 18–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026441772
2027451772
2028451773
2029451773
2030451873

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Olney96020241969
Channing64620181967
Goliad Prairie57720162004
Grayback29920241971
Lakeview27520251995
Girard27120251994
Childress26420251969
Post25220241969
Rock Island22720251990
Booker21220251975
Fitzhugh20319831969
Campbellton20020241969
Bayside 217020041997
Arenosa Crk14020251984
Smyrna13420102005
La Pryor10320171971
Selden9520251968
Hearne9520251998
Adamsville8320251990
Laredo8320231994
Chandler8120041994
Bonner8120251997
Millett8020091995
Easton8020131998
Easton 27120252014

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.