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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Texas has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
231Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has risen sharply in Texas: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 47 (95% range 20–74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 47 (95% range 20–74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025461973
2026461973
2027461974
2028472074
2029472074

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Olney96020241969
Bonner65220241997
Channing64620181967
Goliad Prairie57720162004
Grayback29920241971
Post25220241969
Beaver Creek24320241994
Fitzhugh20319831969
Campbellton20020241969
Gainesville18920241967
Bayside 217020041997
Girard16120231994
Glen Rose15720241967
Childress14220241969
Smyrna13420102005
Rock Island12020241990
Winnie11120242001
La Pryor10320171971
Oyster Lake9820241995
Laredo8320231994
Chandler8120041994
Millett8020091995
Easton8020131998
Booker7920241975
Easton 27920242014

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.