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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Oklahoma has surged: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+365%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Oklahoma: up 365% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 62 (95% range 39–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
39–8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Oklahoma is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 62 (95% range 39–85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026583681
2027593782
2028603783
2029613884
2030623985

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaver65320181979
Clear Lake30220251992
Hollis25220251993
Randlett22820251969
Canadian22820171968
Erick22520241970
Sickles18920211997
Douglas18020221988
Cooperton17320251998
Lookout14220251967
Ft Sill East12919941994
Cashion12820242006
Verden12720171968
Blanco11120162000
Hunter11120242004
Loco10019791979
Tegarden8120161968
Phillips7420251995
Heyburn7120252004
Sandbluff6920251993
Mill Creek6720251974
Duncan6620251990
Indianola5720252004
Ardmore5620251991
Tatums5020251992

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.