BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Oklahoma has surged: up 308% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+308%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Oklahoma: up 308% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 60 (95% range 37–83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
37–8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 60 (95% range 37–83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025573480
2026583581
2027593681
2028593782
2029603783

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaver65320181979
Clear Lake29020241992
Cooperton27420241998
Canadian22820171968
Erick22520241970
Sickles18920211997
Douglas18020221988
Hollis16920241993
Lookout15520231967
Ft Sill East12919941994
Cashion12820242006
Verden12720171968
Blanco11120162000
Hunter11120242004
Loco10019791979
Tegarden8120161968
Mill Creek6920181974
Noble6220241998
Duncan5820241990
Heyburn5520242004
Holdenville4220241972
Ardmore4020091991
Choctaw3820171996
Foraker3820241992
Randlett3420241969

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.