BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Nevada has surged: up 498% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+498%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Nevada: up 498% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Nevada is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Nevada is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025160.0036
2026160.0036
2027160.0036
2028170.0036
2029170.0037

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gardnerville26720121992
Fallon15120241992
Comins Lake12520162005
Gardnerville 24620242013
Rye Patch3419871968
Ruby Valley3320011999
Virgin Creek2820181995
Toiyabe Nf2720242003
Bald Mtn.2720241992
Charleston Reservoir1320242024
Midas1120241974
Jarbidge820151997
Chimney Res.620242007
Calico Spr519731970
Dinner Sta419921968
Majors Place420151989
Meadow Vally420241996
Ranchogrande320241988
Humboldt Nf320151993
Ruby Valley 2320242004
Nixon320241992
Dobbin Creek219951968
Hiko220151994
Jean Lake219891989
Nelson220231996

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.