BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Nevada has surged: up 508% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+508%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cliff Swallow Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Nevada: up 508% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cliff Swallow Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Nevada is projected to rise about 69% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Nevada is projected to rise about 69% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026160.0035
2027160.0035
2028160.0036
2029160.0036
2030170.0036

Cliff Swallow Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gardnerville26720121992
Comins Lake12520162005
Fallon12320251992
Gardnerville 24620242013
Rye Patch3419871968
Ruby Valley3320011999
Midas3020251974
Virgin Creek2820181995
Toiyabe Nf2720242003
Chimney Res.2320252007
Meadow Vally1820251996
Charleston Reservoir1320242024
Bald Mtn.1120251992
Jarbidge820151997
Calico Spr519731970
Dinner Sta419921968
Majors Place420151989
Ranchogrande320241988
Humboldt Nf320151993
Ruby Valley 2320242004
Nixon320241992
Dobbin Creek219951968
Hiko220151994
Jean Lake219891989
Nelson220251996

Cliff Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.